A long while back (perhaps 2020 or so) I started suggesting (in private conversation and in blog posts here or there) that America should, as a matter of great national policy and urgency, enforce and bring about the kind of Sovereign Wealth Fund that's all the rage in Denmark and Saudi Arabia which have been around since the 1990's).
It seems today that some folks have started listening (or independently arrived at the same) and begun advocating these ideas widely in the Press:
The specifics vary and I'd like to take a moment to suss out the key ideas behind my original conception, how it contrasts with the more limited objectives above, and why any of these is likely a great idea for America.
It was a bit scant on the details. Generally-speaking, I'm a big fan of endowments (coming from the nearly half-decade I spent working with Non-Profits in Academia in my prior years). Essentially, instead of burning through some budget or payout granted on arbitrarily determined but consistent schedule (annual budget, fiscal year, etc.), an institution instead raises money (or socks it away) and lets the investments grow. The investments become substantial enough that they can pay for services/goods in perpetuity (on top of the annual budget or what have you). In time, a prudent org can amass such a fortune that they can do outlandish things like go tuition free.
Rough analogies here (for those who like analogies):
Strangely, before working in Academia (with 501c3's), I hadn't encountered the idea before! We often hear about "the Government [not] saving" but not about the exact means by which it can optimize how it saves or into what. Most of our gotos for personal savings scenarios have no corresponding analogy at the top (for the government itself): 401K, Roth IRA, HYSA, etc. Where should, where, or how does the Government park its money?
Social Security, contigency funds, Pension Plans, Quantitative Easing are basically the only facilities the U.S. Federal Government has available to it and each of these are strictly defined, narrowly scoped to fulfill certain limited operations/services.
Some countries recently pushed far ahead into this analogical metaphor and created huge multi-billion (or trillion)-dollar mega funds (alluded to above). So, despite the absence of such equivalents thus far here at home, it is possible and apparently working quite well over seas for others!
What are the benefits of these kinds of funds:
Going into a bit more detail above:
$5 Trillion budget ($250 Billion would be a good minimum starting point that can be ramped up over time).So, every substantial public policy article needs a chart or two. I've assembled one. From this helpful document published by the U.S. Senate, the Average Interest Rate of all U.S. Federal debt 3.386%.
The Average Annual DOW return over the last 30 years: 11.80%.
To illustrate how fast America's debt could be outpaced by investing at or around that historic DOW ROI using some Python helpfully suggested by an A.I. (that I had to mostly rewrite - I should probably note that I rarely use A.I. on this site and will usually mention I do so):
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def compound_interest(principal, rate, years):
balances = []
times = []
for t in range(years + 1):
amount = principal * ((1 + rate) ** t)
balances.append(amount)
times.append(t)
return times, balances
def plot_interest_graph(times_a, times_b, series_a, series_b, rate_a, rate_b):
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plt.plot(times_a, series_a, marker='o', color='red', linewidth=2, label=f'Growth at {rate_a*100}%')
plt.fill_between(times_a, series_a, color='red', alpha=0.4)
plt.plot(times_b, series_b, marker='o', color='lightgreen', linewidth=2, label=f'Growth at {rate_b*100}%')
plt.fill_between(times_a, series_b, color='lightgreen', alpha=0.4)
plt.title('Compound Interest Growth Over Time', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold')
plt.xlabel('Years', fontsize=10)
plt.ylabel('Balance ($)', fontsize=10)
plt.grid(True, linestyle='-', alpha=0.3)
plt.legend()
plt.savefig(
"Compound Interest Comparison.svg",
format="svg",
dpi=300,
bbox_inches="tight")
plt.show()
starting_amt = 1
years = 50
rate_a = 0.03386
rate_b = 0.1180
times_a, series_a = compound_interest(starting_amt, rate_a, years)
times_b, series_b = compound_interest(starting_amt, rate_b, years)
plot_interest_graph(times_a, times_b, series_a, series_b, rate_a, rate_b)
If such a fund were created in the vein of the paradigmatic "Social Security lockbox" (created but saved up for some mandatory period of time before being spent) it'd be able to outpace Federal Outlays and obligations sometime late century or next. That'd ultimately pay off America's debt (serve as collateral otherwise) and can grow (in any outcome/scenario) to be used as policy makers see fit.
Kudos to Bernie Sanders (and other tech luminaries) for spearheading this kind of discussion (I understand that behind closed doors these topics have been broached before but this is, apparently, the first time its been considered seriously). (And, to be clear I'm not typically a big Bernie fan - not a huge detractor either!)
While I think there are some key details that can/should be hashed out (and isn't there space for the myriad D.C. political factions to take a specific stance within the scope of this idea?), the overall benefits are clear - such megafunds are working for other countries and will help to smooth away the budgetary/fiscal woes of today for America's future generations.